{"id":"W4407153573","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5125254","title":"Gender Diversity and Consensus Forecasts","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Gender Politics and Representation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Diversity (politics); Consensus forecast; Political science; Geography; Econometrics; Economics; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008831876,0.0003610613,0.0007327484,0.002243378,0.001413283,0.003624042,0.0008828355,0.002087481,0.02421625],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07510218,0.0002773852,0.0006879944,0.001776815,0.001025456,0.00371537,0.00162001,0.002821427,0.003626582],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001832455,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009393906,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007584789,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008944319,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973218,0.0009399832,0.0000938759,0.0006080868,0.0006143298,0.0004218858],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9451257,0.04202775,0.002661381,0.003045299,0.005567364,0.001572489],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00461589,0.0003956087,0.2068094,0.0004021373,0.0008484987,0.0004178767,0.006799026,0.1628939,0.002346374,0.3216974,0.0907831,0.2019907],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002231666,0.0003069123,0.1213458,0.0002301117,0.000197096,0.000133683,0.008896295,0.3228987,0.002262472,0.5208296,0.0225097,0.000166448],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.862659,0.001387786,0.02683458,0.01253426,0.0008285447,0.00008079483,0.003015796,0.000206917,0.09245229],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9930865,0.0001192746,0.0009111104,0.0001182335,0.0001489708,0.00001861837,0.000697894,0.00002774489,0.004871661],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02421625,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08101147,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05082513200037789,"score_gpt":0.3252543402287425,"score_spread":0.2744292082283646,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}