{"id":"W4407503422","doi":"10.1007/s00703-025-01066-y","title":"Exceptionally rare tropopause folding caused the Sinai’s dragon storm: a forensic meteorological analysis","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Tropopause; Storm; Climatology; Meteorology; Geology; Environmental science; Geography; Troposphere","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006050922,0.0002219727,0.0001647114,0.0009279348,0.001938198,0.0007494225,0.0003001172,0.0006335319,0.002768143],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001424909,0.0001183687,0.0001724083,0.0007555651,0.0009007466,0.0005381985,0.0006607018,0.0007922702,0.0002134345],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004654577,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006398735,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006165245,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01036349,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998201,0.00002131344,0.000009557974,0.00004388893,0.00003709901,0.00006822354],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993344,0.000149091,0.0001350025,0.0001472066,0.0001485442,0.00008579625],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006424036,0.00008886573,0.8925977,0.00008351124,0.0001086735,0.03350476,0.004453073,0.001759681,0.008223743,0.009201661,0.006059267,0.04327668],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000362864,0.0001366208,0.9315464,0.0001155048,0.0001507762,0.01531778,0.01232466,0.00822409,0.004669023,0.008092508,0.01932707,0.00005928546],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9917771,0.0002320378,0.0007706304,0.000616273,0.0001007245,0.000009584907,0.0003328807,0.00001926676,0.00614147],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990216,0.00008729374,0.0002348069,0.00004646612,0.00003334954,0.000001717446,0.0001874974,0.000005006457,0.0003821439],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006165245,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01225871,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01315448170045872,"score_gpt":0.2410468640064588,"score_spread":0.2278923823060001,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}