{"id":"W4407601723","doi":"10.1002/for.3261","title":"Forecasting the Confirmed COVID‐19 Cases Using Modal Regression","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Forecasting","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Yonsei University","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Modal; Econometrics; Regression; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Statistics; Computer science; Mathematics; Virology; Medicine; Internal medicine; Chemistry","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004650503,0.0005078582,0.0006200963,0.001273351,0.0002345275,0.0008991692,0.0009097162,0.0006962622,0.001712546],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02223529,0.0002200325,0.0006428166,0.0008646383,0.0003001307,0.0009872989,0.0006211328,0.001254363,0.0002912795],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008965001,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006649256,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03670983,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02031496,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991637,0.0004016129,0.00003791233,0.0001577224,0.0001528702,0.000086263],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9902497,0.007042835,0.0009701503,0.0004207282,0.001097871,0.0002188566],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001887369,0.00005452963,0.06160837,0.00003379899,0.00008076506,0.00008403142,0.00005776209,0.9125624,0.0005417971,0.003189503,0.001799137,0.01979913],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000282218,0.00001755887,0.003137461,0.000005952659,0.000006418148,0.000007930783,0.00002475919,0.9955942,0.0001305686,0.0009298942,0.0001354084,0.000006989854],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8416054,0.0005733295,0.1497018,0.00142725,0.0001245142,0.00007135483,0.002469452,0.000466779,0.003559999],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9900407,0.00009766183,0.008456874,0.0000501053,0.00003442061,0.00001636228,0.0008599772,0.00001353859,0.0004303642],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03670983,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07299232,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.6020515917172558,"score_gpt":0.4913457903066035,"score_spread":0.1107058014106522,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}