{"id":"W4407779664","doi":"10.57187/s.3517","title":"The key role of base rates: systematic review and meta-analysis of the predictive value of four risk assessment instruments","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"review","venue":"Swiss Medical Weekly","topic":"Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending","field":"Psychology","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Medicine; Predictive value; Meta-analysis; Value (mathematics); Risk assessment; Key (lock); Intensive care medicine; Risk analysis (engineering); Internal medicine; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.1866397,0.00463397,0.02375149,0.01188157,0.001160358,0.0110525,0.00554918,0.005483717,0.00640657],"category_scores_gemma":[0.4255895,0.003329644,0.04910929,0.01129184,0.003775543,0.01067028,0.00376655,0.00585166,0.0007354838],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.004002139,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.006995788,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004184202,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005267089,"domain_scores_codex":[0.7985911,0.1158515,0.05213378,0.01620311,0.01567587,0.001544718],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.5258468,0.4107369,0.03856391,0.01308516,0.01059129,0.001175898],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":"methods","domain_candidate":"methods","domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"meta_analysis","study_design_gemma":"meta_analysis","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001997873,0.00002512788,0.008209514,0.3145381,0.6451753,0.0001465707,0.0002111268,0.0007000912,0.0001240637,0.0009577851,0.001208149,0.02670633],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009928474,0.0002586742,0.004248766,0.0954009,0.8892142,0.0002049792,0.0001336267,0.0005861809,0.0002573875,0.003647457,0.00496728,0.00008786096],"study_design_candidate":"meta_analysis","study_design_consensus":"meta_analysis","genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.00213617,0.9885609,0.004825019,0.001105316,0.0008314174,0.001054863,0.0007015291,0.00007869393,0.0007062402],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.3950494,0.5651109,0.01889297,0.007110311,0.002089784,0.008383452,0.002157758,0.0003415969,0.0008639089],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8133603,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9870571,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04884530311982484,"score_gpt":0.3929999042154584,"score_spread":0.3441546010956336,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}