{"id":"W4407797737","doi":"10.3389/fbuil.2025.1469890","title":"Integrating Lotka-Volterra dynamics and gravity modeling for regional population forecasting","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Frontiers in Built Environment","topic":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Volterra equations; Dynamics (music); Population; Econometrics; System dynamics; Environmental science; Operations research; Computer science; Economics; Meteorology; Mathematics; Geography; Nonlinear system; Physics; Sociology; Artificial intelligence; Demography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001070124,0.0006771442,0.0006428252,0.0009949839,0.0006069153,0.001128727,0.00165373,0.00106476,0.002224739],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003759216,0.00042087,0.001037359,0.00098807,0.0008249788,0.001143846,0.0009342413,0.001005078,0.0002774487],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00272501,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00242732,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1879819,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1049938,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999711,0.0001078605,0.00001612521,0.00005739323,0.00006062668,0.00004700248],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990319,0.0005434105,0.0001434881,0.00004482337,0.0001786398,0.00005774953],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000004314287,0.00000761028,0.002970044,0.0000175243,0.00002185041,0.00004757337,0.00005521503,0.971814,0.0001489721,0.0198584,0.0005787333,0.004475802],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000001084979,0.000001630706,0.0003215415,0.000003733887,0.00000390572,0.00000601962,0.0000122647,0.9941099,0.00001583584,0.005174049,0.0003456009,0.000004456199],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.103644,0.0006140487,0.8811321,0.001608741,0.0001148678,0.00008104627,0.0006561388,0.0004655858,0.01168343],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9112669,0.0006325203,0.08334585,0.0001989042,0.00008431842,0.0001377551,0.0003876876,0.0001108281,0.00383521],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.1879819,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3737755,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09228502473962605,"score_gpt":0.3288635597142781,"score_spread":0.2365785349746521,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}