{"id":"W4407819673","doi":"10.1142/s1793830925500430","title":"Machine learning predictions of China commodity price indices","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Discrete Mathematics Algorithms and Applications","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":27,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Advanced Micro Devices (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Commodity; Mathematics; China; Econometrics; Economics; Mathematical economics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004394375,0.0001147945,0.0002991688,0.0001414275,0.0002438015,0.00004850071,0.0001654798,0.00006669922,0.00007469054],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000563177,0.0001196643,0.00006721859,0.0003289125,0.0000959237,0.00007364376,0.0001054444,0.0001649874,0.000004369765],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002110154,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001254779,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001509573,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001247239,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990537,0.000009672015,0.0005286307,0.0002402913,0.00003490212,0.0001327855],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991969,0.00009557795,0.0003264031,0.0002998222,0.00003206922,0.00004915879],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000001991697,0.0001832032,0.03644414,0.000269036,0.00007110407,6.927496e-8,0.0003546106,0.00006013605,0.000005531363,0.9601187,0.00004205486,0.002449441],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001962151,0.00001694997,0.01984998,0.00002493351,0.00001794279,8.525863e-7,0.00009803192,0.693692,0.000007422319,0.2648384,0.02114228,0.0001149169],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.01536484,0.001409656,0.8882967,0.0004324189,0.0000494121,0.000555673,0.0009673015,0.00005523676,0.09286873],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9828151,0.0005439597,0.01483131,0.00002352331,0.00002962844,0.0001879004,0.0001220423,0.00001389444,0.00143267],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9674503,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4879771,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01301653025397524,"score_gpt":0.2397788439829875,"score_spread":0.2267623137290123,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}