{"id":"W4407897575","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5140193","title":"Biased Promotions","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Economic and Social Issues","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Inequality; Promotion (chess); Economics; Political science; Mathematics; Mathematical analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003414601,0.0001664397,0.0003000917,0.0001509278,0.001143391,0.0002243902,0.000664712,0.000398561,0.0002428551],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002690733,0.0001784387,0.0002812153,0.0001341705,0.000180074,0.0001093769,0.000149226,0.003981652,0.00007712142],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002992981,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.02230165,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004426506,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04026357,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9967547,0.0003782689,0.0003203412,0.0002526964,0.0002198797,0.002074089],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992301,0.00008145948,0.0002530179,0.0001765227,0.0001453226,0.0001136093],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000004952291,0.00005519592,0.0007579461,0.000009464833,0.0002147977,0.000001414619,0.008293212,0.00001984516,8.962977e-7,0.9766437,0.001027919,0.01297063],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001529988,0.00002832206,0.00006468901,0.00007513674,0.00006748403,0.000002306892,0.0132483,0.00001252796,0.000002955277,0.9130352,0.07310287,0.0002072272],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1577576,0.01566616,0.005629921,0.0317026,0.00665028,0.001240187,0.00006269001,0.0004043731,0.7808862],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7999525,0.02978279,0.0001218076,0.0001467633,0.00247301,0.00002480159,0.00001380561,0.00001608351,0.1674685],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.6421949,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9983162,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02659142951326909,"score_gpt":0.3380402863747379,"score_spread":0.3114488568614688,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}