{"id":"W4407947595","doi":"10.1038/s41537-025-00582-5","title":"Clinical prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Schizophrenia","topic":"Schizophrenia research and treatment","field":"Medicine","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary; Hotchkiss Brain Institute; McGill University","funders":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","keywords":"Psychosis; Psychology; Logistic regression; Clinical psychology; Schizophrenia (object-oriented programming); Global Assessment of Functioning; Scale (ratio); Psychiatry; Computer science; Machine learning","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001022413,0.0002210604,0.0004239525,0.0004271084,0.0001955254,0.00004039272,0.0001092539,0.0001354581,0.00004473128],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002374776,0.0001997762,0.0002191647,0.0003959893,0.00005159401,0.0001059869,0.00006535029,0.0002753079,0.0000406979],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003124811,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001925834,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008561891,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000855138,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977704,0.0001565209,0.0006823305,0.0005966997,0.0003381514,0.0004558494],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990266,0.0001711823,0.00007835759,0.0003337475,0.00009159336,0.0002985279],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.1792591,0.002858227,0.469443,0.0003975805,0.001343993,0.000032533,0.003664805,0.00170454,0.005328888,0.0004415856,0.04428576,0.29124],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.05019513,0.001925675,0.716617,0.001033867,0.0004792313,0.00001256284,0.0001450098,0.2126739,0.003654211,0.01189603,0.0009657217,0.0004015998],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9881905,0.0002169201,0.004387553,0.003381785,0.0003496355,0.002104331,0.001061792,0.00009547685,0.0002120486],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9543359,0.0002603138,0.04338976,0.0004430974,0.0001300656,0.0006006279,0.0003202111,0.00002882152,0.0004911461],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2908384,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8146636,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03310807948625872,"score_gpt":0.3766634868775334,"score_spread":0.3435554073912747,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}