{"id":"W4408009475","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104027","title":"Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Financial Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Bank of Canada; University of Notre Dame; New York University; University of Chicago; Harvard University; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Treasury; Inflation (cosmology); Bond; Economics; Monetary economics; Finance; Geography; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00139962,0.000249128,0.0005048152,0.0006825422,0.0008401962,0.004935853,0.0004597186,0.002149203,0.009303871],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007367161,0.0003270519,0.0003403307,0.001443504,0.001323284,0.004834606,0.001022279,0.004834698,0.001205864],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001946625,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001255385,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02693706,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03213289,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996721,0.00005954365,0.00001795998,0.00005623605,0.00006351277,0.0001306963],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9972423,0.0007375575,0.001074116,0.00007066915,0.0003856449,0.0004896764],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001706062,0.0008250127,0.4250875,0.0004213565,0.0004482115,0.002088207,0.0160787,0.003115795,0.003245002,0.3432938,0.06673735,0.136953],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001545567,0.0002000468,0.741969,0.000728065,0.0003199837,0.0003391396,0.0205671,0.003038474,0.0009283589,0.1060017,0.1256313,0.0001222553],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8544723,0.02041373,0.0003961656,0.08521803,0.0005541304,0.00001581359,0.0007157867,0.00002667385,0.03818736],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9834004,0.00649802,0.00004968638,0.002845808,0.0004611962,0.000005862462,0.0001704854,0.00003773432,0.006530763],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02693706,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05356055,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07246586592281044,"score_gpt":0.2589371767582003,"score_spread":0.1864713108353898,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}