{"id":"W4408093143","doi":"10.3386/w33522","title":"On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University; University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Fragility; Phillips curve; Inflation (cosmology); Keynesian economics; Economics; Nonlinear system; Econometrics; Thermodynamics; Physics; Theoretical physics; Monetary policy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004025649,0.0002808615,0.0003842569,0.002492366,0.0007766615,0.002782744,0.0008139702,0.0009580257,0.008636556],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03054576,0.0001793094,0.0005325284,0.003059246,0.003208172,0.005572815,0.001905918,0.002465405,0.0009373883],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007783377,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006528103,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004999677,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005074528,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990194,0.0003980589,0.00007491747,0.0001864115,0.0002281047,0.000093209],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9832475,0.01192812,0.002540236,0.001152919,0.0009293745,0.0002019371],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005390393,0.00008899422,0.1611016,0.0003845762,0.0002774025,0.001151379,0.003628769,0.01982395,0.002440958,0.6359289,0.008358743,0.1662758],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003008621,0.0002687005,0.2421028,0.0004193731,0.0001738576,0.001040475,0.004381822,0.03977879,0.001978367,0.6851501,0.02453633,0.0001393109],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.681898,0.007912078,0.07099011,0.08155776,0.0003302998,0.00005524716,0.00164153,0.000288944,0.155326],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9893343,0.00336304,0.002696752,0.001045339,0.0003637487,0.00001292644,0.0003758594,0.00004782551,0.002760209],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008636556,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02889216,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.5434109995892652,"score_gpt":0.4726446626638574,"score_spread":0.07076633692540785,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}