{"id":"W4408101951","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107414","title":"The role of CDS spreads in explaining bond recovery rates","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Banking & Finance","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Group for Research in Decision Analysis; HEC Montréal","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Belgian Federal Science Policy Office; Institut Canadien des Dérivés; Higher Education Commission, Pakistan; HEC Montréal; Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS","keywords":"Bond; Monetary economics; Economics; Business; Financial system; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002648348,0.0004452679,0.0003951201,0.00145699,0.0004098196,0.002889104,0.0007842496,0.001592142,0.00463269],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02036362,0.0004125422,0.0005764005,0.0008582196,0.0007537425,0.001622732,0.0005606135,0.002220296,0.0007858262],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006483831,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005093383,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.009308165,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004838377,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996884,0.0001301651,0.00002997323,0.00005952186,0.00003604954,0.00005589109],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9828053,0.0123571,0.002434066,0.0007917829,0.0008553172,0.0007564279],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007405764,0.000382336,0.8458469,0.0001199757,0.0003508114,0.0009572719,0.0005400281,0.0846207,0.004269428,0.03121219,0.003229654,0.02773015],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001719872,0.0001757941,0.5438496,0.0001187862,0.0004486716,0.0004175276,0.0005955321,0.4099048,0.003138974,0.0377196,0.003392241,0.0000664486],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9908888,0.001282883,0.002760107,0.001263575,0.00004128457,0.00001066821,0.0002136255,0.0000734667,0.003465438],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989222,0.0002421523,0.0001542677,0.00002580353,0.00003582007,0.000001383041,0.00006134141,0.000009020571,0.0005479279],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009308165,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01850796,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0110473690307285,"score_gpt":0.2302672908470702,"score_spread":0.2192199218163417,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}