{"id":"W4408110765","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(25)00355-1","title":"Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet","field":"Medicine","cited_by":828,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Cilag; Daiichi Sankyo Europe; DSM Nutritional Products; Japan Science and Technology Agency; National Health and Medical Research Council; Medical Research Council; Novartis Pharma; Allergan; National Institutes of Health; Tour de Cure; Alberta Health Services; Government of Alberta; Swedish Orphan Biovitrum; Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde; National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center; Rede de Química e Tecnologia; H. Lundbeck A/S; Sanofi; National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences; Lilly Deutschland; Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca; National Research Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Vlaamse regering; Sanofi Genzyme; Novo Nordisk; Universidade do Porto; Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Hospital Research Foundation; Ministry of Education; Fondazione Cariplo; University of Alberta; Generalitat de Catalunya; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; Government of Canada; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Chinese Nutrition Society; National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities; AstraZeneca; Johns Hopkins University; Amarin Corporation; Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology; World Health Organization; Novo Nordisk Pharma; Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior; Wellcome Trust; National Research Foundation of Korea; King Saud University; Department of Health and Social Care; International Headache Society; Danone; National Science and Technology Council; American Heart Association; Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine; Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja; Cardiff University; Eli Lilly and Company; U.S. Department of Defense; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Korean Diabetes Association; American Diabetes Association; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Amgen","keywords":"Overweight; Obesity; Environmental health; Medicine; Burden of disease; Disease; Global health; Demography; Public health; Internal medicine; Population; Pathology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00458905,0.0004291747,0.0002347722,0.001277876,0.000248478,0.0007354926,0.000494801,0.0004864694,0.001214385],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007812451,0.0002654357,0.001067281,0.002228247,0.0001802778,0.001168487,0.0007711698,0.0008773759,0.0004412622],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008193908,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009158873,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03977853,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02761642,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992918,0.0002403338,0.00007716361,0.0001820858,0.0001325174,0.00007614275],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977737,0.0007469298,0.0006597764,0.0002450763,0.0004351115,0.0001393734],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001220057,0.00003101949,0.9761011,0.00007542148,0.0001521217,0.0000713616,0.0003642785,0.008648679,0.00008569935,0.0004495285,0.003268885,0.01062992],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001809195,0.00009421992,0.9496417,0.000159335,0.0001578386,0.0001523098,0.0009266232,0.04348862,0.000163746,0.0008546762,0.004306491,0.00003628741],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9603316,0.001509313,0.006457332,0.00128719,0.0001064089,0.00009391139,0.02790468,0.0000965916,0.002212983],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9706124,0.0008971257,0.004146515,0.0001079896,0.0000529569,0.0001371694,0.02365062,0.00002505346,0.0003700889],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03977853,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07909399,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03337152260853269,"score_gpt":0.3159623909794454,"score_spread":0.2825908683709127,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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