{"id":"W4408208852","doi":"10.1136/bmj-2024-080952","title":"Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"BMJ","topic":"Parkinson's Disease Mechanisms and Treatments","field":"Medicine","cited_by":418,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","keywords":"Burden of disease; Disease; Parkinson's disease; Disease burden; Medicine; Environmental health; Computer science; Pathology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003202523,0.0009282686,0.000663267,0.0008482565,0.0002995809,0.0007474825,0.00102729,0.0009223783,0.002330187],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004150895,0.0005600797,0.003118007,0.001296066,0.000226122,0.0008524525,0.0006592681,0.0008087337,0.0006737217],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002289605,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001899075,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.08539866,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04769748,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992127,0.0004737477,0.00003224364,0.0001049315,0.00007049298,0.0001057838],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988239,0.0004656016,0.0002233387,0.00009141017,0.0002863719,0.0001092973],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006964449,0.0001306428,0.176901,0.0003832534,0.001465022,0.000481359,0.0003622357,0.7883719,0.0005180551,0.005708907,0.01294204,0.01203921],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003656483,0.0004489661,0.1164338,0.0003452703,0.0008380283,0.0005720713,0.0008805844,0.8562495,0.0005281584,0.009609207,0.01356659,0.0001621928],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.897275,0.002515492,0.03474732,0.004320468,0.000191482,0.0003564572,0.0502679,0.0003831545,0.009942647],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.962847,0.001246762,0.01138239,0.0002854865,0.00003353172,0.000598344,0.02119451,0.00003783696,0.002374096],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08539866,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1698032,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02542214684082392,"score_gpt":0.3316233938914093,"score_spread":0.3062012470505853,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}