{"id":"W4408310145","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104103","title":"Foreign exchange markets, climate risks and contextual news: An intraday analysis","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Review of Financial Analysis","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Brock University","funders":"","keywords":"Foreign exchange; Financial economics; Business; Economics; Monetary economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001634631,0.0001812465,0.001109608,0.001067484,0.00007368379,0.00005141037,0.0003763624,0.00008969475,0.001486985],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0009767907,0.0001896739,0.0005518466,0.002888464,0.0000774274,0.0002080909,0.0001309261,0.0001201541,0.000005928898],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007936327,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003554822,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00138313,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001379677,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979544,0.00006094848,0.001172135,0.0005154459,0.00009702743,0.0002000589],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984863,0.00009026842,0.0006454688,0.0004145035,0.0002903473,0.00007307699],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004164862,0.0001005955,0.7549803,0.0005871882,0.002474316,0.000001961976,0.00002550243,0.000007554414,4.65632e-7,0.2009515,0.0004403233,0.0403887],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002667012,0.00002723169,0.852341,0.0002612427,0.001893649,3.658594e-7,0.00001439121,0.09746778,0.000001432286,0.01152685,0.03597769,0.0002216955],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4711248,0.1820761,0.1319061,0.003645369,0.0009293587,0.001169914,0.00621464,0.00007625492,0.2028574],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9047322,0.09255631,0.0007227319,0.001047409,0.00005177365,0.00003316996,0.0003664176,0.000006883009,0.0004831335],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4336073,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9994258,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02844511291488366,"score_gpt":0.2919632007180192,"score_spread":0.2635180878031356,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}