{"id":"W4408333772","doi":"10.1002/aepp.13503","title":"US employment exposure to domestic and foreign tariff changes under <scp>NAFTA</scp>","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"National Institute of Food and Agriculture","keywords":"Tariff; International trade; International economics; Economics; Business","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002108781,0.0003144599,0.0005823111,0.0005074919,0.0002054262,0.0002121765,0.0002124604,0.0001610723,0.00005385755],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003537414,0.0003820821,0.00007204706,0.0001581586,0.0001365358,0.0001275699,0.0001969504,0.0001484682,0.0002811731],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004450773,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005864122,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001677389,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004007721,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982002,0.000007139504,0.0004245003,0.0008142128,0.00001345007,0.0005405081],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991364,0.0001077829,0.0001555936,0.0003517989,0.000009667377,0.0002387813],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001193952,0.00003894851,0.007658618,0.00002189385,0.0001479044,9.26793e-7,0.001686026,0.0003668036,0.00002606222,0.987282,0.001653864,0.001105036],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002058269,0.0002678798,0.2452434,0.00002389566,0.00003733925,0.00002005338,0.01071195,0.0003634754,0.0001023576,0.6053599,0.1353501,0.0004613753],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7968997,0.00296866,0.0002512243,0.003353941,0.0001443697,0.0004154429,0.0002008349,0.00005076183,0.1957151],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9918349,0.002065694,0.0003425237,0.00316412,0.000310595,0.0001091234,0.000009575219,0.00003124676,0.002132268],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.381922,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998631,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02284995429583949,"score_gpt":0.2416520600021512,"score_spread":0.2188021057063117,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}