{"id":"W4408345561","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adt8035","title":"Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"review","venue":"Science Advances","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":38,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","keywords":"Earth system science; Climate change; Climate model; Climate system; Climate science; Climatology; Position (finance); Computer science; Data science; Environmental science; Meteorology; Environmental resource management; Geography; Geology; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003393037,0.001005635,0.001136774,0.002300506,0.0002533867,0.00172742,0.001611304,0.001422154,0.003373284],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009161096,0.0003160823,0.001118419,0.003295408,0.0005434256,0.002493501,0.001095267,0.001773723,0.001762806],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000972077,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002388655,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006170216,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007254013,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992073,0.0002724459,0.00008577797,0.0001226793,0.0002795859,0.0000323135],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9965,0.00258838,0.0002347276,0.0001383917,0.0004947329,0.00004374202],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003498832,0.00003250328,0.001365562,0.02647753,0.0007161286,0.0001317481,0.0002100825,0.005962792,0.0007161403,0.02874041,0.0338764,0.9017358],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009198261,0.00004372904,0.00224287,0.01346452,0.0004588693,0.0001869794,0.0002218983,0.002267923,0.0007438012,0.02000734,0.9603036,0.00004935738],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.0006818117,0.9815524,0.006860496,0.002508565,0.001022579,0.00003191147,0.0005456629,0.00009624974,0.006700273],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.005106707,0.9884851,0.00418584,0.0005673471,0.0003935356,0.00003087784,0.0005223627,0.00002706866,0.0006811682],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006170216,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01794434,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06180846789384553,"score_gpt":0.320741688689522,"score_spread":0.2589332207956764,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}