{"id":"W4408425319","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6903","title":"Ensemble precipitation down-selection methods using Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS): Balancing accuracy and spread under computational constraints","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Precipitation Measurement and Analysis","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Selection (genetic algorithm); Computer science; Statistics; Mathematics; Econometrics; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001904114,0.0009565085,0.001178122,0.0007079162,0.0005260941,0.0008457219,0.00121056,0.0005753082,0.0008995934],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005442552,0.0003714327,0.000795653,0.0005527937,0.000405693,0.0009169845,0.0009936425,0.0009672034,0.0003110301],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004374395,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001366249,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006358302,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006223409,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992037,0.0002132567,0.0000544599,0.0001279636,0.000314156,0.0000865581],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977198,0.0009541208,0.0002041393,0.0002877673,0.0007290085,0.00010518],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002013291,0.0001124879,0.005810495,0.00007224026,0.0001457405,0.0001638434,0.0001122084,0.7124629,0.01040135,0.003755502,0.002324966,0.264437],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007646726,0.00003968751,0.0006713448,0.000003783051,0.0000118542,0.00001660791,0.000008126472,0.9967751,0.001529532,0.0006631327,0.0002651211,0.000007989046],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.07821437,0.0003142099,0.9189069,0.0001968771,0.00007777313,0.00007559924,0.00007149712,0.0007607306,0.001382131],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7448532,0.0002680738,0.2517484,0.0002010942,0.0001210709,0.0001710657,0.0004668367,0.0001416615,0.002028611],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006358302,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01264256,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0692526036398831,"score_gpt":0.3256576308548685,"score_spread":0.2564050272149854,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}