{"id":"W4408427497","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11763","title":"A Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Model for Canada: Insights for Data, Science and Policy","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Fire effects on ecosystems","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Public Safety Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Damages; Mandate; Natural disaster; Work (physics); Environmental planning; Public health; Business; Political science; Environmental science; Engineering; Geography; Meteorology; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002591045,0.001182041,0.00120386,0.0012908,0.001861724,0.003984256,0.004437029,0.00261828,0.008879904],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00909933,0.0008361282,0.001323957,0.0024968,0.001735097,0.002349365,0.002004787,0.003907953,0.0007536207],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.03299867,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.03383103,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9278271,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8858832,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989923,0.0002945726,0.00003404791,0.000167241,0.0002540389,0.0002577854],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9963211,0.001869185,0.0002420962,0.0001166616,0.001126912,0.0003241153],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006059066,0.00003321307,0.002582336,0.00005288224,0.00002544015,0.0001475678,0.0001270562,0.8406816,0.0001011062,0.1310452,0.01670104,0.008442016],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002140789,0.000008336643,0.0005029282,0.00003902992,0.00001729234,0.0000281861,0.0001043426,0.9588143,0.00003096499,0.03188674,0.00852035,0.00002612846],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.154291,0.00743795,0.5781964,0.05234684,0.0007129334,0.0009388974,0.03626423,0.001657167,0.1681545],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8208065,0.005949075,0.09870938,0.001821865,0.0002829043,0.0007187087,0.01066698,0.0003941945,0.06065039],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.07217294,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2394232,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01956916351946125,"score_gpt":0.2625035168477455,"score_spread":0.2429343533282842,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}