{"id":"W4408428077","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12510","title":"Future Changes in Arctic River Runoff and its Impact on the Ocean","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Climate change and permafrost","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary; University of Alberta","funders":"","keywords":"Surface runoff; Arctic; Environmental science; The arctic; Oceanography; Hydrology (agriculture); Geology; Ecology; Geotechnical engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004520318,0.0003261309,0.0002601827,0.000250735,0.0003696842,0.001496379,0.0001704645,0.0006485599,0.002544534],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001222934,0.0001650878,0.0005946618,0.0006546457,0.0002371581,0.0005912218,0.0004452133,0.0003807637,0.0003664088],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001200289,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009382662,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04140781,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02732592,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997944,0.00007011685,0.000008176156,0.00003582981,0.0000545753,0.00003688818],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9998087,0.0000592559,0.00002715418,0.00001522153,0.00005684689,0.00003276081],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001920054,0.00006195147,0.09902516,0.0001256997,0.0001081489,0.0004569921,0.0002214089,0.857528,0.006206377,0.01192447,0.004413866,0.01973599],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005087176,0.0001349117,0.1825665,0.0001144682,0.0001259225,0.0001787821,0.0009220999,0.7677886,0.004503137,0.0184657,0.02504769,0.0001012573],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9464787,0.0008188194,0.008847035,0.002823703,0.0002229233,0.00001247822,0.006575106,0.0003338294,0.03388741],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9911806,0.001122442,0.002749366,0.000133518,0.00007686835,0.00001199957,0.002084436,0.0001000288,0.002540686],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04140781,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08233362,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03477343317536773,"score_gpt":0.2683613076174838,"score_spread":0.2335878744421161,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}