{"id":"W4408436018","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7253","title":"Scenario Simulations for Estimating Environmental Impacts of Canadian Oil Sands Emissions","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Air Canada; Alberta Environment and Protected Areas; Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Oil sands; Environmental science; Environmental impact assessment; Natural resource economics; Economics; Geography; Asphalt; Political science; Archaeology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001167237,0.0001660538,0.0001702466,0.0002399114,0.0002441162,0.0000258959,0.0001614429,0.0002049826,0.00356545],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001131304,0.0001645392,0.0001168112,0.0001771046,0.00008161322,0.00006823998,0.0002190671,0.0001810934,0.00002697307],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005326511,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001373475,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.121026,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.183215,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989697,0.0000203215,0.0003029044,0.0003111768,0.0001611447,0.0002346992],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992693,0.00007149017,0.0001335686,0.0002666808,0.000005896114,0.0002530518],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002371325,0.0001857981,0.03887678,0.0003239274,0.00009539155,0.000001500485,0.001912628,0.7515608,0.03327689,0.0001660239,0.0133569,0.1602196],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009238035,0.00008811471,0.03131752,0.0004008122,0.0001655049,0.000003121274,0.0002923959,0.9007106,0.02143111,0.001764047,0.04212805,0.0007749224],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7983373,0.00006642654,0.01614117,0.001600105,0.001700443,0.001040314,0.002649642,0.0001475565,0.178317],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9519767,0.00001854407,0.03868087,0.0001808327,0.00003824998,0.00003442818,0.0002764529,0.00001127624,0.008782685],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1695343,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9973454,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01502207739034451,"score_gpt":0.2567226965539038,"score_spread":0.2417006191635593,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}