{"id":"W4408452741","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2025-609","title":"The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: Insights for the next major eruption","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Geological and Geochemical Analysis","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Saskatchewan","funders":"European Space Agency","keywords":"Forcing (mathematics); Sensitivity (control systems); Volcano; Climatology; Geology; Environmental science; Seismology; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002947332,0.0003805622,0.0003973279,0.0005692833,0.0002972684,0.00132881,0.000758734,0.0007361149,0.002156568],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006915638,0.0001556706,0.0006685561,0.0007692736,0.0002413209,0.0006991895,0.0007065975,0.001066186,0.0005732229],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005828745,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005466632,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04926065,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03267329,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996007,0.0001083495,0.00002631426,0.0001700276,0.00005407998,0.00004048739],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977509,0.001181519,0.0002056533,0.0003777644,0.0003290033,0.0001551859],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001015921,0.0001763453,0.4457931,0.00031368,0.0009909277,0.0003045291,0.0001612757,0.4737243,0.004533357,0.002604873,0.04295957,0.0274221],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001475633,0.00007283677,0.3348991,0.00009228485,0.0001270772,0.0001042391,0.0002381636,0.6471668,0.003029126,0.001577703,0.01246255,0.00008247712],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9335425,0.0009227715,0.002737152,0.001723736,0.0002076391,0.00002681982,0.05587199,0.0007447745,0.004222613],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9428226,0.0002116158,0.002169293,0.0002314889,0.00004736764,0.00001930354,0.05370004,0.0001225688,0.0006757373],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04926065,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09794784,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03580784621420691,"score_gpt":0.2586611699697908,"score_spread":0.2228533237555839,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}