{"id":"W4408466818","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17607","title":"Global Data-Driven Prediction of Fire Activity","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Fire Detection and Safety Systems","field":"Engineering","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Environmental science; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00009159941,0.0001521517,0.000268621,0.00003755682,0.00001786033,0.0000153057,0.0003442567,0.0002859581,0.00005956246],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001658916,0.0001560653,0.00007082539,0.000121308,0.00001349345,0.00006918387,0.0004410385,0.0002089868,0.00000985219],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001340761,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004961699,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006232468,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002742666,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992329,0.00002740327,0.0002387828,0.0002543448,0.0001461823,0.0001003412],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998983,0.00001670897,0.00004666353,0.0008835156,0.00003614225,0.00003400723],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004693777,0.00009642727,0.005250294,0.005289681,0.0009680249,0.000004296669,0.0001512342,0.7363435,0.0003750027,0.0002761677,0.1120302,0.1391683],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001103587,0.000008009539,0.01391414,0.0001536896,0.00003252731,0.0000021574,0.00001208832,0.9734114,0.0001934619,0.000036791,0.01201929,0.0001060899],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2392618,0.0007882125,0.3339004,0.0002507052,0.02520115,0.001744379,0.02895376,0.004909425,0.3649902],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9984157,0.00009043422,0.0003011915,0.000004925967,0.0001217092,0.00001400144,0.0002429606,0.000007591435,0.0008014888],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.759154,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.636416,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02902574271153894,"score_gpt":0.2552367206444222,"score_spread":0.2262109779328832,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}