{"id":"W4408509213","doi":"10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102776","title":"Divided we fall: Congressional cycles, the stock market and firm performance","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Corporate Finance","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Stock market; Business; Stock (firearms); Monetary economics; Financial system; Economics; Biology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001414819,0.0001487405,0.0004098289,0.0001421358,0.000185028,0.00008424484,0.0003443435,0.00008199194,0.0000980792],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001403593,0.0001148896,0.0001007143,0.0002745185,0.0001369661,0.0002758822,0.0001026949,0.0003441452,0.000005271415],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005204223,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008854075,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001262917,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001450038,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986787,0.00003606422,0.0008210869,0.0001979799,0.00006762744,0.0001984966],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979312,0.0001661115,0.001476397,0.0002599932,0.0001198783,0.00004645367],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002190269,0.00006439327,0.9430809,0.00008710716,0.00005633026,0.000009219581,0.00005030462,0.00004911305,0.000006484342,0.02568277,0.0193008,0.01139353],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005797231,0.000070936,0.7800972,0.0001595673,0.000008723106,0.00002001438,0.000008811708,0.05464141,0.000008139093,0.05836686,0.1059107,0.0001279567],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9763727,0.009705366,0.001430165,0.00340564,0.0007630836,0.0001369138,0.0000539879,0.000005985041,0.008126216],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9855971,0.007192366,0.0005093908,0.0002593057,0.00006439102,0.000004857735,0.000001339068,0.000009143825,0.006362136],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1629838,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4685061,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03206070526329398,"score_gpt":0.2269890198231082,"score_spread":0.1949283145598142,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}