{"id":"W4409329277","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5187350","title":"Market Signals from Social Media","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence","field":"Physics and Astronomy","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Social media; Business; Advertising; Computer science; World Wide Web","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","research_integrity","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009221739,0.0003447877,0.0005138711,0.0001084165,0.0003952706,0.000231138,0.0007262352,0.000265582,0.0009695453],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000208946,0.00035351,0.0005092586,0.0001153439,0.00006953289,0.00008024443,0.0003935387,0.005562235,0.00002285677],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005867218,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.005884872,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007527611,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002860914,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9967821,0.0001849826,0.0005030134,0.0003818599,0.0003420661,0.001805981],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988768,0.0001935202,0.0004510933,0.0002161397,0.0001693982,0.00009312783],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007229103,0.0001904862,0.006441343,0.00001967564,0.002199624,0.000002725093,0.001882287,0.0002373769,0.00003326011,0.8857585,0.006229741,0.09693272],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003639338,0.00001251988,0.0009709684,0.00007684918,0.0001030981,6.3366e-7,0.001748024,0.0004213287,0.00000899236,0.9931694,0.002780177,0.0003440827],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6254399,0.0108217,0.1282322,0.0086876,0.0154707,0.001367939,0.006464598,0.0002869794,0.2032284],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9892944,0.0008914886,0.0001209462,0.00009789219,0.005480986,0.00002208515,0.0002288455,0.00003038071,0.003833017],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3638545,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999437,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.009518593199198898,"score_gpt":0.2703122924192764,"score_spread":0.2607936992200775,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}