{"id":"W4409564309","doi":"10.22541/au.174496173.36016365/v1","title":"Use of simple statistical models to predict river water temperature in the Great Lakes region","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Fish Ecology and Management Studies","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Simple (philosophy); Environmental science; Hydrology (agriculture); Geology; Geotechnical engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001320544,0.0006434154,0.0004241263,0.0006615436,0.0002133675,0.0008368156,0.0006475424,0.0004083478,0.0005386796],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004286107,0.0003747861,0.0006570723,0.0006811464,0.0002547471,0.0008645147,0.0004502821,0.0003448966,0.0002759763],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000771845,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008030219,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05053888,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.05987266,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995525,0.000206254,0.00003286327,0.0001221898,0.00005735317,0.00002882908],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984137,0.0009587781,0.0001890833,0.0001582875,0.0002322136,0.00004789526],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006192536,0.00005209051,0.04460606,0.00003349408,0.0002041277,0.00005554057,0.00004523609,0.9332163,0.00126298,0.0004511342,0.0005437987,0.01946722],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000005894922,0.00001443444,0.01300122,0.000004692295,0.00001261088,0.000007502108,0.00001311634,0.9860617,0.0002669597,0.0004483329,0.0001522156,0.00001125849],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.955443,0.0002424718,0.04043739,0.0004363255,0.00003485762,0.00003064778,0.0009632704,0.0007208812,0.001691148],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9886299,0.0000959461,0.009657121,0.00003256121,0.00002021913,0.00002153335,0.0009570018,0.00003414307,0.0005514828],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05053888,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1004894,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03203219611690461,"score_gpt":0.2415963392445769,"score_spread":0.2095641431276723,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}