{"id":"W4409637866","doi":"10.20944/preprints202504.1478.v1","title":"Copula Modeling of COVID-19 Excess Mortality","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Preprints.org","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"University of St. Thomas","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Copula (linguistics); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Excess mortality; Econometrics; Mathematics; Virology; Medicine; Internal medicine; Mortality rate; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002283493,0.0006470982,0.0006546314,0.000872511,0.0002912875,0.001160366,0.001112864,0.0006782183,0.002555721],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01051189,0.0003513595,0.001048199,0.000896261,0.0004532974,0.001037095,0.0008603631,0.001174849,0.0003961174],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006500646,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007020319,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007811978,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0035375,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993306,0.0003279317,0.00002979067,0.0001414542,0.00007977164,0.00009037657],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9973536,0.00163617,0.0004007941,0.0001784161,0.0003306252,0.0001004392],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003813133,0.00003336685,0.00735442,0.00006915618,0.0001445209,0.000265915,0.0002049712,0.8636688,0.001161527,0.1074886,0.002204564,0.01736597],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000299175,0.00001093861,0.00125576,0.000007867948,0.00001048869,0.000025914,0.00002151128,0.9852244,0.0001477628,0.0126437,0.00064188,0.000006978078],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.08698966,0.0004413449,0.9065518,0.0004347482,0.00006342563,0.00006533022,0.0006161988,0.0001965369,0.004640934],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9167457,0.0008243529,0.07348306,0.0001228652,0.0001039321,0.0002098647,0.0007983786,0.0001826487,0.007529288],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.007811978,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01553297,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.7195662233336829,"score_gpt":0.5540516397904444,"score_spread":0.1655145835432386,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}