{"id":"W4409762115","doi":"10.1136/sextrans-2024-056286","title":"Developing and validating a Bayesian clinical risk prediction model for three sexually transmitted infections in key populations from two Canadian provinces","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Sexually Transmitted Infections","topic":"Reproductive tract infections research","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"British American Tobacco (Canada); Saint John Regional Hospital; McGill University; McGill University Health Centre","funders":"Fonds de Recherche du Québec - Santé; Canadian Institutes of Health Research","keywords":"Medicine; Syphilis; Men who have sex with men; Receiver operating characteristic; Incidence (geometry); Demography; Coinfection; Sexually transmitted disease; Hepatitis C; Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); Risk assessment; Internal medicine; Virology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001424833,0.0004407825,0.0005900458,0.00162176,0.001917872,0.0001405936,0.0002496867,0.0006265307,0.0000836227],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001312904,0.0004753459,0.0001982142,0.001601763,0.0004341372,0.0006131777,0.00004064042,0.001531963,0.00002102662],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005501679,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002599073,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.155092,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8148721,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9958286,0.0007169871,0.001330553,0.001171867,0.00009955125,0.0008524995],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971617,0.001470609,0.0001973297,0.000572053,0.0004614373,0.000136885],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001403015,0.0007289869,0.91271,0.00007057932,0.0008557888,0.00000190718,0.001459045,0.01511585,0.002681498,0.01021254,0.0002394242,0.05578413],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.007424721,0.0008464245,0.8288067,0.0002635155,0.0006842743,0.00005251378,0.0006720964,0.1045267,0.0005936195,0.04760447,0.007561281,0.0009637093],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5358072,0.0002624374,0.4583529,0.001096653,0.0009473258,0.001767531,0.0007583349,0.0002675863,0.0007400448],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.992218,0.0001493516,0.005138303,0.0001250395,0.0001248335,0.0008732779,0.0008629813,0.00005750106,0.0004507532],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6597802,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997698,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04720716216516851,"score_gpt":0.3518402281917988,"score_spread":0.3046330660266303,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}