{"id":"W4409792105","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.107465","title":"Financial market reactions to U.S. tariff announcements: Evidence from trade-surplus and trade-deficit countries","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Finance research letters","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Tariff; Economics; Balance of trade; International economics; Gains from trade; Monetary economics; Trade barrier","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00105304,0.0002337907,0.0001864962,0.001023542,0.00041194,0.001187313,0.0001542558,0.0006289656,0.002221307],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003383216,0.0001166897,0.0002413658,0.001297605,0.000433428,0.0007317662,0.0006238543,0.000495536,0.0003199083],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004824658,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002639951,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0113604,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01468087,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997044,0.00007759864,0.00003023209,0.00003619184,0.00007883401,0.00007260764],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9917645,0.001386411,0.005514691,0.0002233186,0.0005927548,0.0005182559],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001290266,0.0003727521,0.9802831,0.00006494208,0.0001109075,0.0002707521,0.0008975645,0.0005975472,0.001262956,0.0006524166,0.002030649,0.01216605],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002777402,0.0002375356,0.9939283,0.00001699691,0.000034685,0.00007670211,0.002521008,0.0006630511,0.0006264249,0.0001752666,0.001678856,0.00001339365],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9970893,0.0001354928,0.00003232086,0.0001883291,0.000008912242,0.000009754078,0.0003000755,0.000003220408,0.002232754],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988569,0.000158552,0.0000249688,0.00008874125,0.00002013193,0.000004042477,0.0005613085,0.00000152109,0.0002837381],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0113604,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02258855,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08826324806719331,"score_gpt":0.2933997843610072,"score_spread":0.2051365362938139,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}