{"id":"W4410533905","doi":"10.54932/bfky4995","title":"Beyond PPML: Exploring Machine Learning Alternatives for Gravity Model Estimation in International Trade","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Gravity model of trade; Estimation; Computer science; Econometrics; Economics; Machine learning; International trade","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01461491,0.00102422,0.001380227,0.002176981,0.0008157195,0.002762596,0.001569293,0.001810236,0.00221128],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05500226,0.0004893195,0.001098278,0.00201798,0.002235286,0.004311585,0.002948535,0.002823195,0.0004507584],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0010933,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001547703,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004064774,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003922341,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9939237,0.004916418,0.0001531271,0.0004069583,0.000474537,0.0001253053],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9434859,0.05240613,0.001216393,0.001509737,0.001114424,0.000267595],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001551719,0.0001393738,0.007812446,0.0002982504,0.0001885622,0.0001345237,0.0002912278,0.7257715,0.0002732286,0.1425012,0.00166231,0.1207721],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001399017,0.0000270004,0.0003182845,0.00002739652,0.000007405896,0.00001218577,0.00002634618,0.9425991,0.00007605807,0.05635235,0.0005300592,0.000009745622],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.05664915,0.002586143,0.9303641,0.004727917,0.00007345185,0.00008035688,0.0001518042,0.000369928,0.004997134],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7662404,0.001700213,0.2288726,0.0007900136,0.0003538261,0.0001973704,0.0003317459,0.0001335315,0.001380187],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01461491,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07729197,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1121407740803439,"score_gpt":0.2955569170400028,"score_spread":0.1834161429596588,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}