{"id":"W4410755731","doi":"10.1029/2025gl114831","title":"Large Decreases in Sea Ice Strength and Pressure Along Major Arctic Shipping Routes Projected for the Next Two Decades","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria; Environment and Climate Change Canada; York University","funders":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Met Office","keywords":"Arctic; Sea ice; Geology; Climatology; The arctic; Arctic ice pack; Environmental science; Oceanography; Physical geography; Meteorology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003838188,0.0003473374,0.0001397446,0.0003003708,0.0001824546,0.0005766648,0.0002058189,0.0003818102,0.001243712],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000762497,0.0001124095,0.0005187322,0.0005532757,0.0001332195,0.0004774864,0.0003487578,0.0004347673,0.0003168604],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004504534,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004711467,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0209934,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01828565,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999137,0.0000142433,0.00000643481,0.00002457297,0.00002082277,0.0000201676],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999681,0.00003300338,0.0001158308,0.00002341995,0.0001039094,0.00004287633],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003523573,0.00007506564,0.9156192,0.0001213655,0.0003650992,0.0003149508,0.0001379981,0.05166087,0.005363569,0.000906539,0.002790814,0.02229227],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001493241,0.0001328615,0.9555917,0.00004310587,0.000115082,0.0001868076,0.0003436953,0.03462519,0.002547516,0.0004712559,0.005899127,0.00002871171],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9930121,0.0002757272,0.001202935,0.0003069612,0.00003786529,0.000004826968,0.003838978,0.00004591332,0.00127468],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9949005,0.0003236226,0.0005747434,0.00004729633,0.00001615492,0.00001210102,0.003534641,0.000009462253,0.0005814445],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0209934,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04174244,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0288318678689691,"score_gpt":0.3060054877936969,"score_spread":0.2771736199247278,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}