{"id":"W4411497230","doi":"10.1142/s1793005727500141","title":"Machine Learning Heating Oil Price Forecasts","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"New Mathematics and Natural Computation","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Advanced Micro Devices (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Oil price; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence; Econometrics; Economics; Monetary economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003737735,0.0001057576,0.0002273686,0.0001290099,0.0001391457,0.00009306218,0.00006260222,0.00005464839,0.0000271601],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001841141,0.0001092577,0.00004521124,0.0002027108,0.00001404008,0.00009962966,0.00005590542,0.0001853724,0.000006322343],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003821572,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001283395,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001178444,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001807763,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992439,0.000008407239,0.0003788345,0.0002048941,0.00002978021,0.0001342344],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995051,0.0001517991,0.0001956414,0.00007840023,0.00002970438,0.0000393682],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003251297,0.0001103162,0.03565517,0.001063338,0.00010388,0.000001775163,0.001471136,0.0006957048,0.00004806503,0.7059405,0.0003801385,0.2544974],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002663358,0.00001394821,0.00260756,0.00004279081,0.000003637607,0.000001729775,0.00001869679,0.8059797,0.000003421364,0.1895586,0.001416225,0.00008736779],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6632323,0.006691689,0.2550229,0.0009648807,0.0005553831,0.0001910459,0.00001613746,0.0001103112,0.0732154],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9677076,0.0001176637,0.02767644,0.00009131226,0.00003050739,0.000002451325,0.00002590243,0.000009072698,0.004339085],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.805284,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4455401,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01693520982012043,"score_gpt":0.2397105689688289,"score_spread":0.2227753591487085,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}