{"id":"W4411606629","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104112","title":"The trade imbalance network and currency returns","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Financial Economics","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Smith School of Business, Queen's University; Community Foundation of Randolph County; Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University; Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; University of Nottingham","keywords":"Currency; Economics; Monetary economics; Business; International economics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005202697,0.0002844474,0.0002886648,0.002290913,0.0005137721,0.001673978,0.0003428026,0.0006647219,0.002797847],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006115974,0.000179493,0.0002491935,0.001907328,0.001350855,0.002622224,0.000903814,0.0006607655,0.0002466323],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008149857,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002080288,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00146522,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009990099,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998112,0.00006134209,0.000006833725,0.00004744098,0.00004431234,0.00002882524],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9974061,0.001197674,0.0008759774,0.0001403788,0.0001793498,0.0002005963],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001950209,0.00005942614,0.05566097,0.0001286794,0.00007844617,0.0004749107,0.0007931007,0.0892605,0.006203962,0.8069025,0.002494399,0.03774802],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003728677,0.00009503945,0.05922673,0.00007002825,0.0000637028,0.000979994,0.0005129691,0.2427829,0.00145291,0.6846859,0.01004121,0.0000512521],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7898485,0.001557061,0.1809572,0.001959931,0.00007194443,0.00004028465,0.0005613336,0.0001173479,0.02488652],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9930449,0.0004679922,0.005146121,0.00003693243,0.0000627482,0.00001674571,0.0001075175,0.00001199351,0.001105099],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002797847,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.009359717,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01108205032310827,"score_gpt":0.2175860973610656,"score_spread":0.2065040470379573,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}