{"id":"W4411614506","doi":"10.3390/risks13070119","title":"Copula Modeling of COVID-19 Excess Mortality","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risks","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"University of St. Thomas","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Copula (linguistics); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Econometrics; Excess mortality; Mathematics; Virology; Medicine; Mortality rate; Internal medicine; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001218149,0.0001319561,0.0004982454,0.00005130171,0.0001180481,0.000006946531,0.0002361425,0.0001073191,0.00007507487],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01387113,0.0001026552,0.0001299796,0.0002138525,0.00009471893,0.00002936997,0.0002363883,0.0001472181,0.00000637057],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001273521,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009511271,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002980501,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002969446,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986757,0.0001741094,0.0005146209,0.0002632949,0.0001635457,0.0002087178],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970078,0.002298324,0.0001439902,0.0004006089,0.00007136419,0.00007784788],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009470645,0.0004681776,0.4861727,0.003172404,0.0005534642,0.00001899768,0.001060277,0.04178283,0.0001404814,0.4374618,0.02694357,0.002130558],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003687543,0.00001963775,0.007503577,0.00005996883,0.0001179191,3.083984e-7,0.0002042355,0.06358318,0.00008299891,0.9252818,0.00262913,0.0001484978],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6529371,0.0006873251,0.3374755,0.002144157,0.0001404206,0.0003185886,0.00002965986,0.0001740449,0.006093291],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9955482,0.0001239969,0.002725068,0.001339032,0.0000284401,0.00002877356,0.000002283349,0.000006637672,0.0001976044],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.48782,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9944354,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.6494676109673875,"score_gpt":0.5705657263117371,"score_spread":0.0789018846556504,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}