{"id":"W4411696646","doi":"10.1111/cdev.14265","title":"Six-Year-Olds, but Not Younger Children, Consider the Probability of Being Right by Chance When Inferring Others' Knowledge","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Child Development","topic":"Child and Animal Learning Development","field":"Psychology","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo; University of Toronto","funders":"Yale University; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Psychology; Probabilistic logic; Theory of mind; Cognitive development; Developmental psychology; Child development; Mental representation; Cognitive psychology; Cognition; Social psychology; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008325254,0.0003786348,0.0004622259,0.0001353948,0.000479915,0.00005487016,0.0005183481,0.0001724848,0.001072035],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001304336,0.000282312,0.0001205669,0.0002960938,0.0002354534,0.00008293638,0.0003126312,0.0005084031,0.0002719024],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001821397,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003087656,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007372475,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0000586565,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997443,0.0001827746,0.0007696725,0.0007610586,0.000287572,0.0005559018],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987312,0.0002062651,0.0002211591,0.000609867,0.0001386417,0.00009287245],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003980633,0.001816247,0.7020957,0.0003419089,0.002301384,0.00001102239,0.05977844,0.00001312795,0.001699044,0.1069735,0.09019771,0.03437382],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001056894,0.00002820402,0.8377755,0.0004125846,0.0000344297,0.00001038638,0.0002288462,0.000001907594,0.01205498,0.000759723,0.1472369,0.0003996854],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8779846,0.001820589,0.0004034546,0.003491691,0.0009965117,0.00110082,0.00001808441,0.0001668268,0.1140174],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9862367,0.00002123983,0.001605591,0.001564872,0.00010344,0.0001110149,0.00003209803,0.00003524613,0.0102898],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1356797,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999629,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01307144159768858,"score_gpt":0.2657188482537418,"score_spread":0.2526474066560532,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}