{"id":"W4411795973","doi":"10.2196/73631","title":"Probability-Based Early Warning for Seasonal Influenza in China: Model Development Study","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"JMIR Medical Informatics","topic":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Preprint; Warning system; China; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Seasonal influenza; Early warning system; Computer science; Environmental health; Medicine; Geography; Telecommunications; World Wide Web; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002413651,0.001186592,0.001003485,0.0009955429,0.0005195849,0.0006789885,0.001624641,0.001288078,0.002453999],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00448622,0.0004972296,0.001166506,0.0005937002,0.0005573366,0.0009651129,0.001020282,0.001517515,0.0002450483],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002145773,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00275541,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1424821,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07322108,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996984,0.000112855,0.00001436917,0.00007475977,0.00003113522,0.00006847524],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960957,0.00287257,0.000217267,0.00007250869,0.0006352962,0.0001066235],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003866449,0.00003777618,0.004172102,0.00002769316,0.00002767491,0.00004819153,0.00001565959,0.9925241,0.00005317712,0.0004241091,0.0003456148,0.00228536],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000535738,0.000008754366,0.0004175636,0.000002546417,0.000006564945,0.000002967151,0.000005227735,0.9993184,0.00002104598,0.0001763134,0.00003273095,0.000002621815],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9268697,0.00158769,0.06185121,0.001734541,0.0001080741,0.000161595,0.001730157,0.0005178244,0.005439318],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9901586,0.0003359785,0.006285226,0.00009568768,0.00002841839,0.0001294488,0.0008320324,0.00002215714,0.002112435],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1424821,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2833055,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03048765941312154,"score_gpt":0.3404966830842518,"score_spread":0.3100090236711303,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}