{"id":"W4412347363","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adq9557","title":"Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science Advances","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Polar vortex; Stratosphere; Northern Hemisphere; Climatology; Sudden stratospheric warming; Snow; Arctic oscillation; Atmospheric sciences; Vortex; Latitude; Quasi-biennial oscillation; Geology; Environmental science; Middle latitudes; Geography; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002507401,0.0001200999,0.0001173041,0.0008932916,0.0002688033,0.0006775118,0.0001647382,0.0002176677,0.001019981],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001148054,0.00008266426,0.000208499,0.001215247,0.0002519543,0.0003725732,0.000522344,0.0003120756,0.00005491561],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003193807,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003477467,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05365442,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.08740129,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998722,0.00003239191,0.00001356903,0.0000260681,0.00002083172,0.00003484274],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992445,0.0001695035,0.0003349149,0.00005123136,0.00009904134,0.0001008863],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001439505,0.000007538206,0.998089,0.00000274815,0.00002687706,0.00001995671,0.00006025836,0.0001321346,0.0001203982,0.00003240481,0.0001046496,0.001389548],"study_design_scores_gemma":[5.228849e-7,0.000004361726,0.9993299,0.000002559924,0.000007538291,0.00001701924,0.0001937767,0.0002786807,0.00002620322,0.00002314677,0.0001153654,9.361692e-7],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9988376,0.0002088764,0.00004306246,0.0001077572,0.000004288654,0.000002036164,0.000249393,0.000003386039,0.0005435808],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995024,0.0001225721,0.00002313293,0.0000192333,0.000007901599,0.000001279576,0.0002668524,0.000001187936,0.00005544344],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05365442,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1066843,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.007774071170559267,"score_gpt":0.2535326296794532,"score_spread":0.245758558508894,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}