{"id":"W4412602092","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.011","title":"Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022–2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Infectious Disease Modelling","topic":"Zoonotic diseases and public health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Indian Council of Agricultural Research","keywords":"Autocorrelation; Spatial analysis; Bayesian probability; Zero (linguistics); Inflation (cosmology); Statistics; Geography; Bayesian hierarchical modeling; Econometrics; Statistical physics; Mathematics; Bayesian inference; Physics; Theoretical physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004580291,0.0001457003,0.0002435164,0.0003515276,0.0001596765,0.00004881608,0.00005893613,0.000095815,0.00001429752],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001140748,0.0001199442,0.00008850305,0.0004421263,0.00005846551,0.0001310987,0.00002883661,0.0003407139,7.214877e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00009853488,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004759674,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001198528,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004765215,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985412,0.000168297,0.0004497083,0.0002961368,0.0003018481,0.0002428063],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992126,0.0001569825,0.000099027,0.0002692907,0.0001002751,0.0001618258],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004896614,0.0003071236,0.05157338,0.0005955345,0.00003379355,0.00002996395,0.001130338,0.8862209,0.000007912911,0.008444209,0.00004907053,0.05111812],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008636882,0.00004981294,0.0072855,0.0005344328,0.0001355741,0.000005636269,0.0001463583,0.9658841,8.077864e-7,0.02493134,0.00007057311,0.0000922047],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2900666,0.0003462198,0.703276,0.001297669,0.0001248009,0.0005693853,0.000003354397,0.0000410967,0.004274902],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.99902,0.0001102253,0.0002175071,0.0004120205,0.0001005812,0.00005012857,0.00003314514,0.00001477562,0.00004163621],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7089534,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4891184,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02905393886573176,"score_gpt":0.2943768020699304,"score_spread":0.2653228632041987,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}