{"id":"W4412619104","doi":"10.1162/opmi.a.2","title":"When Success Is Surprising: Children’s Ability to Use Surprise to Infer Competence","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Open Mind","topic":"Child and Animal Learning Development","field":"Psychology","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"The Scarborough Hospital; University of Toronto","funders":"James S. McDonnell Foundation","keywords":"Surprise; Psychology; Competence (human resources); Social psychology; Developmental psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00250154,0.0004162441,0.0004183815,0.0006868967,0.0002163348,0.001773704,0.0003815954,0.0008247352,0.00210345],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01822227,0.0005266098,0.0003292789,0.0002241711,0.001350997,0.00106206,0.001285969,0.001169658,0.0003548302],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002411229,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002295437,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001606944,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00170815,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988594,0.0002644731,0.00009879003,0.0002877761,0.0003438418,0.0001456173],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9902045,0.003647185,0.003946229,0.0009317513,0.0007437709,0.0005265652],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006788318,0.0002863782,0.7087318,0.0004095318,0.0001752113,0.002557955,0.03791562,0.001466154,0.210485,0.002039035,0.001077811,0.0341767],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002080673,0.0004458801,0.9717326,0.00009539103,0.00007833687,0.001193735,0.006800102,0.002128413,0.01330703,0.002563033,0.001530398,0.0001042688],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9975188,0.0000742757,0.0008175214,0.00005151904,0.000006734801,0.000006192313,0.00006054897,0.00002296723,0.001441423],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988104,0.00006367701,0.0007761943,0.00003356909,0.000003293728,0.00001142269,0.00006069806,0.0000109267,0.0002297519],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00250154,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01322955,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04176386054266638,"score_gpt":0.3557976766846702,"score_spread":0.3140338161420038,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}