{"id":"W4412675842","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100214","title":"Mathematical modelling and time series clustering of Mpox outbreak: A comparative study of the top 10 affected countries and implications for future outbreak management","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Global Epidemiology","topic":"Poxvirus research and outbreaks","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; Series (stratigraphy); Cluster analysis; Time series; Computer science; Econometrics; Geography; Operations research; Statistics; Mathematics; Biology; Virology; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006506083,0.0001565514,0.0006777536,0.00005291967,0.0001874866,0.000004782082,0.0002104638,0.0001831908,0.00002568062],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001821583,0.0001059847,0.00006347448,0.0001363274,0.0005479081,0.00004373852,0.0003795512,0.0001220712,0.000005331531],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002836547,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003550031,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00009756012,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009195266,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984326,0.000476264,0.0004755937,0.0002797895,0.0000236581,0.0003121353],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985573,0.0008219574,0.0001694607,0.0003020139,0.0001252232,0.00002406433],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.005241388,0.001421379,0.1407515,0.001765231,0.005124896,0.000001597995,0.00463435,0.002381288,0.003274111,0.8120596,0.01425427,0.00909041],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0105203,0.002146363,0.7811478,0.0004298083,0.001045823,0.000101845,0.01044482,0.005919757,0.001131781,0.1566432,0.02979653,0.0006720218],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9629647,0.004657479,0.02257335,0.003650302,0.0001893548,0.002349717,0.0007040086,0.00004095535,0.002870138],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972169,0.0001422834,0.00147129,0.0001689347,0.00001277792,0.0001237648,0.00002983274,0.000004554629,0.0008296074],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6554164,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.432193,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03503177248055746,"score_gpt":0.3431075992087917,"score_spread":0.3080758267282342,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}