{"id":"W4412744441","doi":"10.2196/66551","title":"Estimating the Population Size of People Who Inject Drugs in 3 Cities in Zambia: Capture-Recapture, Successive Sampling, and Bayesian Consensus Estimation Methods","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"JMIR Public Health and Surveillance","topic":"Census and Population Estimation","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Mark and recapture; Population; Statistics; Estimation; Population size; Bayesian probability; Small area estimation; Sampling (signal processing); Medicine; Demography; Estimator; Geography; Econometrics; Environmental health; Computer science; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01232902,0.0007039124,0.0006472761,0.001779357,0.0007927842,0.000818635,0.001718349,0.0006997532,0.0006302813],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03049147,0.0005620848,0.001347409,0.001311247,0.0008917272,0.0007549957,0.001865271,0.0009304167,0.00007411807],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001819982,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002006916,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1343409,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1476575,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9954053,0.003079907,0.0002258912,0.0007362364,0.0003493429,0.0002032548],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9920419,0.00480031,0.001622149,0.0006683585,0.0007361671,0.0001310892],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003402234,0.0001399335,0.6747993,0.0004396716,0.001379671,0.0003900459,0.002957159,0.1793575,0.00122855,0.01070337,0.001426323,0.1268383],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000951178,0.0002789449,0.2977281,0.0002882351,0.0004854926,0.0002365807,0.001142413,0.6893174,0.0008156724,0.007476676,0.002027585,0.0001077465],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7578295,0.001111737,0.237514,0.0004045829,0.00002805841,0.0007565957,0.001040417,0.0001149572,0.001199965],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8740391,0.0003660178,0.1235621,0.00007446322,0.0000106462,0.000608874,0.0009610656,0.000009609198,0.0003683222],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1343409,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2671179,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03698335080622499,"score_gpt":0.3895836347747608,"score_spread":0.3526002839685358,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}