{"id":"W4413245475","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5383454","title":"Sovereign Default, Foreign Exchange-in-Advance Constraints, and Endogenous Default Costs *","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Sovereign default; Default; Business; Sovereignty; Monetary economics; Foreign exchange; Default risk; Financial system; Economics; International economics; Finance; Credit risk; Sovereign debt; Politics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001865305,0.0002675836,0.0009831575,0.0006554064,0.0004876065,0.00341904,0.0007665221,0.001836177,0.01183588],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01524536,0.0003007236,0.0003741275,0.000941246,0.001114448,0.00368428,0.0009050498,0.002813419,0.000400975],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001178697,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006626478,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003436512,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003516113,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996331,0.0001125301,0.00004126704,0.00006601583,0.00003326542,0.0001138341],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9810985,0.01116338,0.00525392,0.000678587,0.0006335395,0.001172123],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002767019,0.0004848673,0.1682408,0.0006750449,0.0004512449,0.001994985,0.0007519281,0.1744376,0.001951412,0.5785031,0.02429306,0.04544906],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002970452,0.0002323425,0.08861708,0.0001832366,0.0002608946,0.0008172706,0.0009306401,0.1807788,0.001207361,0.7213153,0.005258325,0.0001015921],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9447862,0.003131095,0.01616846,0.007962264,0.0001126162,0.00002562476,0.001641411,0.0000998986,0.02607238],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9973832,0.0004402114,0.0002399787,0.00006356703,0.00005414161,0.000004844222,0.0001705479,0.000007275985,0.00163631],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01183588,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03959495,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02121827500895627,"score_gpt":0.2393972116963336,"score_spread":0.2181789366873773,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}