{"id":"W4413246540","doi":"10.5194/ecss2025-95","title":"A Real-Time Radar-Based Lightning Prediction and Risk Alert System","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Fire effects on ecosystems","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Nowcasting; Meteorology; Lightning detection; Radar; Lightning (connector); Upper-atmospheric lightning; Environmental science; Lightning strike; Weather radar; Thunderstorm; Remote sensing; Computer science; Geography; Telecommunications; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006849901,0.0007794121,0.001032664,0.0009297065,0.0002746411,0.0007732147,0.001266978,0.0005460634,0.002819106],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001428244,0.0002464188,0.0003127443,0.0004590995,0.00009932969,0.0009272837,0.0007414911,0.0005815208,0.001960379],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004517154,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005155359,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002626783,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001314285,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995863,0.00004403675,0.00004785521,0.000145566,0.0001233124,0.00005293302],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993303,0.00008603121,0.00009636142,0.00009629418,0.0002857914,0.0001052995],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002147859,0.0009168609,0.04681432,0.0003465482,0.0002737562,0.001507104,0.0003008783,0.1319726,0.0585838,0.002555468,0.08063704,0.6739438],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001347771,0.0001990312,0.007419676,0.00001668239,0.0000684957,0.0001828415,0.00003936518,0.9789547,0.00689186,0.0008661695,0.005186703,0.00003977447],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2843862,0.001666744,0.5850954,0.001353284,0.0007915871,0.001034051,0.008360192,0.09967908,0.01763348],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9281105,0.0003159271,0.06071333,0.0003699696,0.0001891914,0.0002486058,0.006518415,0.000151255,0.003382825],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.002819106,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.009430885,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.002327081389746275,"score_gpt":0.1784373930828885,"score_spread":0.1761103116931422,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}