{"id":"W4413246560","doi":"10.5194/ecss2025-16","title":"A Statistical Model to Forecast Tornadoes and Reconstruct Their Climatology and Trends Globally","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Tornado; Climatology; Environmental science; Geography; Storm; Meteorology; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009837708,0.0007265689,0.0004594769,0.0008236156,0.0002750789,0.0008112148,0.000982606,0.0004936673,0.002489388],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001929781,0.0004444937,0.0008666525,0.001103586,0.0003132396,0.0008031399,0.000540252,0.0007875928,0.0008330958],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007413607,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008949758,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02735904,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01987627,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997368,0.00006879619,0.00001873987,0.0001082309,0.00002937186,0.00003805513],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990663,0.0005188409,0.0001566834,0.00006338495,0.0001623867,0.00003238241],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004499598,0.00002839225,0.007038532,0.00002433208,0.00005943402,0.00004738706,0.00002203577,0.9733019,0.0003697388,0.003336472,0.001005196,0.01472158],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004012123,0.00001281086,0.0007584688,0.000001903888,0.000005838729,0.000008228999,0.000005570813,0.9974508,0.00005233816,0.001261803,0.0004350706,0.000003105765],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2194264,0.0004797185,0.7641233,0.0009391578,0.0001839107,0.0001023609,0.006901415,0.003622182,0.004221526],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9195148,0.0004357925,0.0669115,0.0001030689,0.0001312386,0.000312546,0.004931844,0.0001348685,0.007524332],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02735904,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05439961,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02600812698313755,"score_gpt":0.2552149841298736,"score_spread":0.229206857146736,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}