{"id":"W4413274230","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101451","title":"Decomposing systemic risk: The roles of contagion and common exposures","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Financial Stability","topic":"Banking stability, regulation, efficiency","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"European Central Bank; Bank of Canada","keywords":"Systemic risk; Economics; Business; Monetary economics; Financial crisis; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003429973,0.0001096182,0.0005323674,0.0001362449,0.0001895325,0.0000408796,0.0002531674,0.00009163623,0.00001485971],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001221424,0.00009038965,0.0001560629,0.0002629888,0.0002352991,0.0001587587,0.00006105853,0.0002398531,7.547615e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001561385,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009364467,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002795997,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0005000702,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981228,0.0001281157,0.001348196,0.0001818458,0.00007026806,0.0001488218],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977175,0.0004245746,0.00134734,0.0003010685,0.0001789139,0.0000305855],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000792371,0.0001110765,0.9582208,0.00009229866,0.00001610226,3.333071e-7,0.00100724,0.000134224,0.0002048462,0.03323487,0.00002841621,0.006870546],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004171199,0.0001019071,0.9377698,0.00008754593,0.00001838361,0.000008080578,0.000120644,0.0003561374,0.0006365671,0.05979304,0.0006169539,0.00007381816],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9838089,0.01093389,0.003829142,0.0002926561,0.0004436131,0.0001992067,0.00004112669,0.000005970554,0.0004455023],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994722,0.0002266322,0.0002120386,0.00002313922,0.00005371401,0.000001935783,4.469026e-7,0.000005012398,0.000004900612],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02655818,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3685983,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01455252941906606,"score_gpt":0.235177460922418,"score_spread":0.2206249315033519,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}