{"id":"W4413306007","doi":"10.1038/d41586-025-02615-6","title":"People are having fewer babies: Is it really the end of the world?","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature","topic":"Family Dynamics and Relationships","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"World Federation of Science Journalists","funders":"","keywords":"Fertility; Demography; Sociology; Population","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003813072,0.00004877881,0.00007073308,0.00003702187,0.0006668814,0.0000418023,0.0003754738,0.0003533114,0.0001053876],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000388181,0.00002581372,0.00007674573,0.0007413846,0.00016749,0.00003793723,0.00006414912,0.001004302,0.00000362033],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004231207,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001541092,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005772762,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07868351,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999343,0.00009814532,0.00009187581,0.00009552627,0.00025738,0.0001141102],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992685,0.0003492307,0.00006972811,0.0001986023,0.0000991097,0.00001484287],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000004517994,0.00002753018,0.141522,0.0000201267,0.00003641039,4.000776e-7,0.02817336,0.0000527004,0.00004789759,0.569953,0.2592913,0.0008707377],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009281629,0.000002313374,0.5084636,0.0001392421,0.00003146149,1.154729e-7,0.01857287,0.0001755844,0.00002383998,0.01299537,0.4594296,0.00007318422],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1906093,0.001915885,0.00001859526,0.3058932,0.002151296,0.0003627801,0.00003396828,0.00002846924,0.4989865],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9163995,0.0000633884,0.00003445437,0.003378418,0.0000642044,0.000003268266,8.840128e-7,0.000002887509,0.08005302],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7257901,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9381281,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01143806824373855,"score_gpt":0.3021399119909871,"score_spread":0.2907018437472486,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}