{"id":"W4413557770","doi":"10.64628/aam.fckcns6x5","title":"History’s crystal ball: What the past can tell us about COVID-19 and our future","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Crystal Ball; Ball (mathematics); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; History; Virology; Medicine; Physics; Nuclear physics; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Mathematics; Geometry; Outbreak; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003574016,0.0005278888,0.0006955572,0.001574698,0.004039253,0.01000969,0.0005814678,0.003595965,0.03550581],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01717362,0.0003072456,0.0003418703,0.002681683,0.006349111,0.01519203,0.002539923,0.006266952,0.004734279],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003402433,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003037113,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01470671,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.020723,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985133,0.0008352001,0.00003444265,0.0001165998,0.0003167574,0.0001837748],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9935992,0.004314302,0.000298054,0.0004447132,0.0005528294,0.0007910093],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006133765,0.00002100741,0.00115566,0.0001376535,0.00002540227,0.0001865064,0.004883873,0.0001900179,0.0000419725,0.4815367,0.4846151,0.02714487],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001035684,0.000007619984,0.001043119,0.000616078,0.00001205583,0.0001448762,0.005105184,0.0003764501,0.00007695552,0.4444949,0.548081,0.00003138995],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.009551666,0.07306597,0.003255705,0.6527072,0.02268719,0.0000116787,0.001220974,0.0001701267,0.2373296],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.5383862,0.115551,0.006256394,0.09819783,0.0342046,0.00007457705,0.001594299,0.001509519,0.2042256],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":"commentary","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03550581,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1187788,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06335510287916722,"score_gpt":0.3338846661914951,"score_spread":0.2705295633123279,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}