{"id":"W4413586617","doi":"10.64628/aam.udacv9ywc","title":"Russian roulette in Ukraine: Is Vladimir Putin powerful, or just lucky?","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Memorial University of Newfoundland","funders":"","keywords":"Roulette; Political science; Arms control; Law; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000722323,0.0002288616,0.0004675279,0.0005180254,0.005122621,0.003691869,0.0004320398,0.001281096,0.002671458],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001312551,0.0001406279,0.0002047682,0.0005829597,0.003862008,0.001687763,0.002404831,0.001413836,0.0005659061],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003680384,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003630724,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03497124,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04736438,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993799,0.0001796686,0.00001536192,0.00007953537,0.0000750266,0.0002704276],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996722,0.00009527263,0.00006553908,0.0000217427,0.00004718092,0.00009810866],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005594193,0.0001064201,0.04323086,0.0003273084,0.0002129266,0.002460206,0.1235876,0.001309297,0.002343997,0.7165412,0.04397798,0.06534276],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005827571,0.0002129957,0.1450844,0.0007945786,0.0001856768,0.00127979,0.2046834,0.001516141,0.002753656,0.1032183,0.5400994,0.0001133734],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.7637005,0.00761361,0.0008823771,0.02913244,0.0004544185,0.00001554785,0.000135058,0.00002982201,0.1980362],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9886078,0.0007638257,0.00007300604,0.0007256689,0.00003098168,0.000003802438,0.00002373749,0.00001324857,0.009757989],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.03497124,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06953537,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05807324269700008,"score_gpt":0.3629896402010591,"score_spread":0.304916397504059,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}