{"id":"W4413791036","doi":"10.1257/aer.20220540","title":"Moonshot: Public R&amp;D and Growth","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Review","topic":"Economic Growth and Productivity","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"","keywords":"Chemistry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009609017,0.0002304969,0.001003814,0.0002348047,0.0001082146,0.00008849015,0.0003181168,0.00004172576,0.0005263644],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000290994,0.0002740612,0.0001563558,0.0002495881,0.0003174473,0.0003490656,0.0001330491,0.0001653244,0.001984335],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001723684,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007012833,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005677077,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009082055,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979891,0.00004122407,0.0008366487,0.0007427869,0.00001059095,0.0003797096],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986017,0.0001064912,0.0005033645,0.0006251771,0.00001752885,0.0001457786],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000004633327,0.00003459367,0.1849062,0.0006533073,0.0001258292,5.055455e-7,0.00002461074,4.928722e-7,0.000001444757,0.6938118,0.02755059,0.0928859],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002277763,0.0000280414,0.02619321,0.0001480033,0.00001936286,0.000009679117,0.00001041487,0.00005007262,0.00000549331,0.05200148,0.9209402,0.0003662506],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1241524,0.3722712,0.002904484,0.06029946,0.001234672,0.001092889,0.0002075565,0.0001737581,0.4376636],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7917728,0.1942748,0.0009295084,0.01000806,0.0001227418,0.0001134203,0.00002623724,0.00003103851,0.002721313],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.8933896,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999712,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03940008284749399,"score_gpt":0.2555401812440786,"score_spread":0.2161400983965846,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}