{"id":"W4413838709","doi":"10.24908/iqurcp19869","title":"Predictive Models for Grade 9 Mathematics Stream: Controlling for Past EQAO Performance","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Inquiry Queen s Undergraduate Research Conference Proceedings","topic":"Educational Assessment and Improvement","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Queen's University","funders":"","keywords":"Mathematics education; Computer science; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007580602,0.001018726,0.0009413281,0.00178344,0.000999206,0.002271994,0.002952932,0.001068733,0.008960301],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02114359,0.0006741295,0.002753847,0.002285643,0.001088067,0.001134243,0.001713178,0.003387687,0.001367707],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002911558,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.008359252,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.4946124,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.3753959,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9966516,0.001175101,0.0002195384,0.0008911528,0.0004508917,0.0006117242],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9794144,0.01190598,0.003887675,0.001368872,0.002050912,0.001372095],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002015103,0.0001780822,0.9612791,0.00005173441,0.0004563053,0.0001197837,0.0003894431,0.0211293,0.00008070637,0.002121024,0.003558458,0.01043451],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001273671,0.000460586,0.6733716,0.0002440869,0.0007361843,0.0001190075,0.001331419,0.3065673,0.0004111842,0.006263331,0.01025023,0.0001176869],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.954653,0.0009272161,0.02423969,0.00328679,0.0002692464,0.0003533255,0.01082495,0.0004613961,0.004984323],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9824407,0.0002655257,0.003841412,0.0001214187,0.00006571263,0.0002116606,0.007247562,0.00003976185,0.005766172],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5053877,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9834668,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3118884900090728,"score_gpt":0.484923408079207,"score_spread":0.1730349180701342,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}