{"id":"W4414100595","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105477","title":"Measuring small business dynamics and employment with private-sector real-time data","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Public Economics","topic":"Firm Innovation and Growth","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council","keywords":"Small business; Dynamics (music); Business cycle; Small open economy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001335426,0.0003293435,0.0003496007,0.002511681,0.0002283338,0.001013234,0.0005754475,0.0007451149,0.001736368],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01031759,0.0002489041,0.0003294073,0.004861593,0.0002962532,0.001475454,0.000695001,0.0005719221,0.001200065],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004405074,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004472928,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01181374,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01353545,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990547,0.0002574894,0.0001180668,0.0002163759,0.0002272468,0.0001260974],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9891682,0.004498878,0.003533037,0.001130986,0.0009944445,0.0006744954],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002749511,0.0002938738,0.9581261,0.00008356046,0.0002279884,0.0001676252,0.0003051511,0.01406119,0.001772933,0.00100277,0.003689411,0.01999433],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002983455,0.0001162812,0.9510998,0.0000286383,0.00004968853,0.0001263957,0.000628494,0.04010511,0.00168931,0.001438058,0.004662398,0.00002601052],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9824392,0.0001444537,0.002542963,0.000246573,0.00001591584,0.00002115716,0.01333604,0.00005799259,0.001195658],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9844208,0.0001157162,0.00155812,0.00002131075,0.00003602096,0.0000243591,0.01329942,0.00001227589,0.0005119551],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01181374,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02348995,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08889443679195132,"score_gpt":0.2234863745225541,"score_spread":0.1345919377306028,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}